ATCF track guidance
Spaghetti models
Every track guidance model on one map, with a slider to run the forecast forward hour by hour. Built from the public a-deck files the National Hurricane Center publishes.
No model guidance to plot
Guidance exists only while a system is under advisory. When something forms, every available track appears here within about fifteen minutes of the model cycle landing.
Read the spread, not the lines
A spaghetti plot is not a menu of forecasts to pick from. Each line is one model run, and any single one of them is worse than the official forecast, which is built by forecasters looking at all of this plus a great deal more.
What the plot is genuinely good for is uncertainty. When the lines bunch tightly at day five, the atmosphere is steering the storm in a way the models agree on. When they fan across several hundred miles, the forecast beyond about 72 hours is close to a coin flip and you should be watching updates rather than planning around any one track. That is why the spread figure sits next to the slider and moves with it.
Where these maps come from
Every line here is drawn from data, not borrowed from another site. The source is the ATCF a-deck file NHC publishes for each storm, which carries each model's forecast positions for every cycle. We parse it, store it, and render the map ourselves, which is why every model can be switched on and off and why the slider can run the whole forecast forward.
A note on ECMWF
You will not find an ECMWF line here. Its track is not carried in the public ATCF a-deck files. NHC receives ECMWF data but is not permitted to redistribute it, so a freely available plot showing an ECMWF track is either separately licensed or is mislabelling something else. Adding it properly means buying a licence, and until then saying so is better than quietly leaving a gap.